Using a Multiagent System Simulation for Decision Modeling

The U.S. military uses modeling and simulation as a tool to help meet
its warfighting needs. A key element within military simulations is the
ability to accurately represent human behavior. This is especially true in
a simulation's ability to emulate realistic military decisions. However,
current decision models fail to provide the variability and flexibility
that human decision makers exhibit. Further, most decision models are
focused on tactical decisions and ignore the decision process of senior
military commanders at the operational level of warfare.

In an effort to develop a better decision model that would mimic
the decision process of a senior military commander, this research
sought to identify an underlying cognitive process and computational
techniques that could adequately implement it. Recognition-Primed Decision
making (RPD) was identified as one such model that characterized this
process. Multiagent system simulation was identified as a computational
system that could mimic the cognitive process identified by RPD. The
result was a model of RPD called RPDAgent.

Using an operational military decision scenario to test model validity,
decisions produced by RPDAgent were compared against decisions made by
military officers. It was found that RPDAgent produced decisions that
were equivalent to its human counterparts. RPDAgent's decisions were not
optimum decisions, but decisions that reflected the variability inherent
in those made by humans in an operational military environment.


JOHN SOKOLOWSKI is a senior research scientist at Old Dominion
University's Virginia Modeling, Analysis & Simulation Center (VMASC). He
holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Computer Science from Purdue
University, a Master of Engineering Management from Old Dominion
University (ODU), and a PhD in Engineering with a concentration in the
Modeling and Simulation from ODU. Prior to coming to VMASC, he spent
27 years in the Navy as a submarine officer with his final assignment
as Head, Modeling and Simulation Division, Joint Warfighting Center,
U.S. Joint Forces Command. His research interests include human behavior
modeling, multi-agent system simulation, and simulation architectures
supporting homeland security.