Title: Estimating tick-borne disease risk with an agent-based model.

Ticks have a unique life history including a distinct set of life stages
and a single bloodmeal per life stage. While some tick species have a
single preferred host for each life stage, other tick species will feed
on a variety of hosts. All of this makes tick-host interactions more
complex from a mathematical perspective. In addition, any model of these
interactions must involve a significant degree of stochasticity on the
individual tick level. In an attempt to quantify these relationships, we
have developed an individual-based model of the interactions between
ticks and their hosts as well as the transmission of tick-borne disease
between the two populations. Preliminary analysis of disease prevalence
as a function of host diversity is presented.


Dr. Holly Gaff is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Biological
Sciences at Old Dominion University and is affiliated with the Virginia
Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center. Dr. Gaff earned her Ph.D. in
Mathematics at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, in 1999. Dr. Gaff's
research interests have focused mainly on studying the dynamics and control of
infectious diseases using mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Most
of her research has focused on developing mathematical models for exploring the
ecology of vector-borne diseases including Rift Valley fever and tick-borne
diseases in the Hampton Roads area. She has had funding for these and other
projects from NIH, NSF, DHS, CDC and the VA.